It is shown that of all bodies in the solar system other than Earth, Mars is unique in that it has the resources required to support a population of sufficient size to create locally a new branch of human civilization. The primary analogy to be drawn is that Mars is to the new age of exploration as North America was to the last. On screen: a depiction of a human colony on the planet Mars. Because of its complex geologic history, Mars may have concentrated mineral ores, with much greater concentrations of ores of precious metals readily available than is currently the case on Earth due to the fact that the terrestrial ores have been heavily scavenged by humans for the past 5000 years. Answer: Human colonization of other planets is a recurrent subject of science fiction. Only Mars has the full set of resources required to develop a native civilization, only Mars is a viable target for true colonization. In short, Martian civilization will be practical because it will have to be, just as 19th Century American civilization was, and this forced pragmatism will give it an enormous advantage in competing with the less stressed, and therefore more tradition bound society remaining behind on Earth. And significantly for interplanetary commerce, Mars and Earth are the only two locations in the solar system where humans will be able to grow crops for export. I thought that at the very embryonic stages of Mars colonization that we seem to be in right now based on the ambition of Space X and their proven ability to leap far ahead of anything legacy space seems to be contemplating in regards to getting to Mars that it might be fun to have an abstract discussion on the economics of the whole thing. 2 we see one version of such a concept that could be used to transport immigrants to Mars. Expansion area is available in the fifth (uppermost) deck after the cargo it contains is unloaded upon arrival. 69 Yet others, including Musk, argue that it is unlikely that Mars would offer anything material that would be financially viable to … Even during the base building phase, domes of this type up to 50 meters in diameter could be deployed on Mars that could contain the 5 psi atmosphere necessary to support humans. What made it salable were two things: 1) That at least a few people believed that it would be exploitable someday, and 2) That a juridical arrangement existed (in the form of British Crown land patents) which allowed trans-Appalacian land to be privately owned. Sold at an average value of $10 per acre, Mars would be worth $358 billion. Pandemic could cause twice as much homelessness as the Great Recession. Last modified on Wed 29 Aug 2018 09.20 EDT. Other destinations, such as the Main Belt asteroids may be richer in potential future exports to Earth but lack the preconditions for the creation of a fully developed indigenous society; these compare to the West Indies. We have examined the potential of relatively near-term types of interplanetary transportation systems, and shown that with very modest advances on a historical scale, systems can be put in place that will allow individuals and families to emigrate to Mars at their own discretion. CH4/O2 bipropellant costs about $0.20/kilogram, so $14 of propellant costs will be incurred for every kilogram lifted to orbit. Posts about economics of space colonization written by Mordanicus. Private organizations, like SpaceX, too have expressed a goal to visit or, in some cases, even establish settlements on Mars. The reduced gravity well of Mars and its position in the Solar System may facilitate Mars–Earth trade and may provide an economic rationale for continued settlement of the planet. Marketplace is a division of MPR's 501 (c)(3). Do you watch the conversations that are happening now around Mars colonization and think either, “You’re welcome,” or “I already wrote this” or “I can see how this is going to play out from here”? O'Neill, "The High Frontier," William Morrow and Co. New York, 1977. However in the case of self-replicating machines the ultimate source of power would be solar, and this provides the basis for an upper bound to system performance. Wood: There’s a lot of exploration of economics in the trilogy and obviously in the new book, too, “2140.” You envision these giant corporations that essentially have all the power. William Bradford, "Of Plimoth Plantation," 1621. This in itself is a very significant result. The present study focuses on the theory, economics, steps and possibilities of colonization of mars … The economic viability of colonizing Mars is examined. If agriculture only areas are desired, the domes could be made much bigger, as plants do not require more than about 1 psi atmospheric pressure. R. Zubrin and D. Weaver, "Practical Methods for Near-Term Piloted Mars Missions," AIAA 93-2089 AIAA/SAE 29th Joint Propulsion Conference, Monterey CA 1993, JBIS, June 1995, 4. It's not a sum of money that anyone would spend lightly, but it is a sum of money that a large number of people could finance if they really wanted to do so. These inventions, licensed on Earth, will raise both Terrestrial and Martian living standards and contribute large amounts of income to support the development of the colony. Mars, on the other hand, has an atmosphere of sufficient density to protect crops grown on the surface against solar flares. The Case for Mars, International Conference for the Exploration and Colonization of Mars. If the cycler employs a magnetic sail11 instead of simply using natural ballistic orbits with gravity assists, the hyperbolic velocity departing Earth required to rendezvous with it can be essentially zero, thereby allowing the entire LEO to cycler delivery to be done by electric propulsion, or conceivably even solar or magnetic sails. The other way is trade. Leaders in current space culture express their desire for permanent colonization of other planets either to escape a dying earth or as a means to improve life on earth. Such a price might be affordable to governments (for a time), but not to individuals or private groups. Oxygen is abundant on the Moon, but only in tightly bound oxides such as SiO2, Fe2O3, MgO, and Al2O3, which require very high energy processes to reduce. The costs impacts as each of these innovations is progressively introduced is displayed in Table 3. Nevertheless, Mars will not be considered fully terraformed until its air is breathable by humans. On Mars, even during the base building phase, large inflatable greenhouses made of transparent plastic protected by thin hard-plastic ultra-violet and abrasion resistant geodesic domes could be readily deployed, rapidly creating large domains for crop growth. planets in general. Colonization of Mars compared to North America. Robert Zubrin As we get closer to life on Mars, we have to start thinking about what its economy would look like and how that might affect the rest of us here on Earth. Such a mechanism would not need to employ enforcers (e.g. The advantages accruing to such a society of terraforming Mars into a more human-friendly environment are manifest4. Use of reflectors and other light-channeling devices would not solve this problem, as the reflector areas would have to be enormous, essentially equal in area to the crop domains, creating preposterous engineering problems if any significant acreage is to be illuminated. The habcraft is 8 meters in diameter and includes four complete habitation decks, for a total living area of 200 m2, allowing it to adequately house 24 people in space and on Mars. The last two entries in the table are based upon nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) using argon propellant, available at either the Earth or Mars, with an Isp of 5000 s for in-space propulsion, with CH4/O2 used to reach low orbit (LO) from the planet's surface. In the primary scenario, artificial greenhouse gases such as halocarbons are produced on Mars and released into the atmosphere. This contrasts strongly with the Moon, which is so dry that if concrete were found there, Lunar colonists would mine it to get the water out. I am very interested in the current talk about Mars. Thus in a single booster launch, 24 people, complete with their housing and tools, can be transported one way from Earth to Mars. It has been shown9 that if concentrated supplies of metals of equal or greater value than silver (i.e. It can be seen that the launch burden for sending the cargo to Ceres is about 50 times less for missions starting from Mars than those departing from Earth, regardless of whether the technology employed is all chemical propulsion or chemical launch vehicles combined with nuclear electric propulsion for interplanetary transfer. We have examined the prospects for colonizing Mars, addressing the question of its economic viability. Mars Colonization—Do We Need It? CiteSeerX - Document Details (Isaac Councill, Lee Giles, Pradeep Teregowda): The economic viability of colonizing Mars is examined. A fictional Mars tourism poster commissioned by SpaceX in 2015 . success of Chinese Lunar missions and Indian Mars missions are not a success of mankind, but an American failure. Nevertheless, it is my contention that the argument against the feasibility of Mars colonization is flawed by essentially the same false logic and lack of understanding of real economics that resulted in repeated absurd misevaluations of the value of colonial settlements (as opposed to trading posts, plantations, and other extractive activities) on the part of numerous European government ministries during the 400 years following Columbus. Elon Musk wants to do it anyway. At the same time, the ongoing bureaucratization of the former terrestrial frontier societies will make it ever harder for strong spirits to find adequate means for expressing their creative drive and initiative on Earth. Why would they want to do so? Licensing on Earth of the inventions created under conditions of necessity on Mars will bring vast amounts of income to support the development of the Red Planet, even as these same inventions continue to raise terrestrial living standards and destabilize tendencies that would otherwise exist on Earth towards technological and social stagnation. D. Baker and R. Zubrin, "Mars Direct: Combining Near-Term Technologies to Achieve a Two-Launch Manned Mars Mission," JBIS, Vol. Simply this, because of the small size of the Martian population and the large transport cost itself, it is certain that the cost of labor on Mars will be much greater than on Earth. If government sponsorship is available, the technological means required for immigration on a significant scale are essentially available today. It is your responsibility to ensure that the colony is the best it can be. Once Mars has been partially terraformed however, with the creation of a thicker CO2 atmosphere via regolith outgassing, the habitation domes could be made virtually to any size, as they would not have to sustain a pressure differential between their interior and exterior. Most of these stem from the lower cost of access to the Moon. That said, the problem with using the natural sunlight available on the Moon or in space is that it is unshielded by any atmosphere. will get the chance to become the vanguard of the human race, the first of a long-term plan for colonization by the Mars One organization - provided they make enough money, that is. J. Lewis and R. Lewis, "Resources from Space: Breaking the Bonds of Earth". For these reasons, as with land speculators on Earth in the past, the owners of open unexplored real-estate on Mars will exercise all their influence to further the exploration of, and encourage the settlement of land under their control. Mars: Among other potential outposts, the Red Planet has always been shrouded by a veil of romanticism and mystery. New Economics deal the economic driver of industrialization of moon and colonization of mars. Wood: The first book in the trilogy is so detailed in the story of colonization. In fact, it is very likely that, with 1 million people being sent to Mars, at least some will not make it. There will thus be a need to export food and other necessary goods from either Earth or Mars to the main belt. Once the techniques have been mastered that will allow the support of a large population on Mars out of indigenous resources, the settlement of Mars can begin. A planet of refuge will be needed, and Mars will be there. We have seen that despite the fact that Mars may lack any resource directly exportable to Earth, Mars' orbital elements and other physical parameters gives a unique positional advantage that will allow it to act as a keystone supporting extractive activities in the asteroid belt and elsewhere in the solar system. Since the end of the second World War many plan for manned missions to Mars are proposed and also the possibility to establish permanent human settlements on the Red Planet is … The purpose of the exploration phase is to resolve the major outstanding scientific questions bearing on the history of Mars as a planet and a possible home for life in the past, to conduct a preliminary survey of the resources of Mars and determine optimum locations for future human bases and settlements, and to establish a modus operandi whereby humans can travel to, reside on, and conduct useful operations over substantial regions of the surface of Mars. Under conditions of such large scale and open immigration, sale of real-estate will add a significant source of income to the planet's economy. There are plenty of creatives who have already been doing lots of brainstorming about this. It is shown, that of all bodies in the solar system other than Earth, Mars is unique in that it has the resources required to support a population of sufficient size to create locally a new branch of human civilization. Put another way, the amount of power required to generate the sunlight falling on the tiny country of El Salvador exceeds the combined capacity of every power plant on Earth. In 1802, Napoleon Bonaparte sold a third of what is now the United States for 2 million dollars. A confined world will limit opportunity for all and seek to enforce behavioral and cultural norms that will be unacceptable to many. In short, the purpose of the base building period is to develop a mastery of those techniques required to produce on Mars the food clothing and shelter required to support a large population on the Red Planet. 43 No. Not so. Mars colonization is possible in the distant future due to potential terraforming techniques and the presence of needed organic elements on Mars. Tue 28 Aug 2018 03.00 EDT. Rather the key questions become those of resource utilization, growing food, building housing, and manufacturing all sorts of useful goods on the surface of Mars. R. Zubrin and David Baker, "Mars Direct: Humans to the Red Planet by 1999" IAF-90-672, 41st Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, Dresden, Germany, Oct. 1990. It can be seen that if chemical systems are used exclusively, then the mass ratio required to deliver dry mass to the asteroid belt from Earth is 14 times greater than from Mars. At this rate, the creation of habitable land by the mass production and erection of large numbers of domes to house the waves of immigrants should prove to be one of the biggest businesses on Mars and a major source of income for the colony. Short-term stimulus based on the spending 2. Zahaan Bharmal. In order to understand the economics of Mars colonization it is necessary first to examine briefly the different phases of activity that will be necessary to transform the Red Planet. Canonical List of Space Transport Methods V0.76. Carbon, nitrogen, and hydrogen are only present on the Moon in parts per million quantities, much like gold in sea water. Before discussing the advantages of the Moon, let’s analyze what a full-court press for Mars colonization look… While I shall return to historical analogies periodically in this paper, the arguments presented here shall not be primarily historical in nature. Both missions deliver 50 tonnes of cargo. There are a number of reasons that the Moon is the best place to start space colonization, but the basis of most of them are its proximity to the Earth. A Mars Colony Could Be Humanity's First Shot at a Ground-Up, Pure Economy. Concept art for a Mars settlement with a cutaway view of an underground habitat area for growing food . EIN: 41-0953924. People love those first tiny little rovers on Mars because they were public projects and everybody had a stake in it. Consider once again out CH4/O2 SSTO vehicles used to transport payloads from the surface of the Earth to low Earth orbit. Marscoin is a testbed for experimentation with technologies that might help early colonists on Mars build governance, voting, inventory tracking, trading and capital allocation. Yet the prospect of For example a single square kilometer of cropland on Earth is illuminated with about 1000 MW of sunlight at noon; a power load equal to an American city of 1 million people. For a long time it might be considered to be an exotic place where we don’t need to change it. The goal of the competition was to establish a successful colony on Mars for 1,000 residents. Depends on your wage bracket. One hundred entrants from around the world submitted proposals, which were eventually narrowed to 10 finalists who presented their proposals at the 22nd Annual Mars Society Convention in … People create wealth, people create power. Mars colonization is possible in the distant future due to potential terraforming techniques and the presence of needed organic elements on Mars. 7. The point, however, is that in contrast to colonists on any other known extraterrestrial body, Martian colonists will be able to live on the surface, not in tunnels, and move about freely and grow crops in the light of day. Because the necessary income will be there to pay for the trip after it has been made, loans can even be taken out to finance the journey. The asteroid belt enters into the picture here because it is known to contain vast supplies of very high grade metal ore10 in a low gravity environment that makes it comparatively easy to export to Earth. Introductory textbook from NASA. On the economic front, nationalists will remind readers of the many ancillary effects which space technology has had on the economy including: include zippers, cordless appliances, and a wealth of new medical information. The Moon is also deficient in about half the metals (for example copper) of interest to industrial society, as well as many other elements of interest such as sulfur and phosphorus. At a delivery price of $100/kg to LEO, and assuming that the cost of the cycler itself is amortized over a very large number of missions, this in turn translates into a cost of $320,000 per passenger to Mars. People are wealth and power. Kim Stanley Robinson: The first colonists on Mars I now think will be modeled kind of on Antarctica. 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